KEARNEY — All of central Nebraska is under the gun for some risk for severe weather this afternoon into the evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats, but a few tornadoes are not out of the question.
Through this afternoon and evening there is an increasing threat of strong to severe thunderstorms. The threat level from the Storm Prediction Center is now up to Enhanced Risk, a level three out of five, for parts of the National Weather Service – Hastings warning area.
A large upper-level trough has been digging into the United States and will be crossing the Rockies today. This in turn has promoted a surface low to develop and is serving to pull additional moisture from the south into the central Plains.
There could be more than one round of storms today, with the earliest starting by 1 p.m. This would feature spotty storms that could be strong to severe with the main threat likely being hail.
As peak heating increases and the better upper-level forcing arrives from the west, the main round of severe weather could get underway around 5 p.m., possibly in more than one part of the area.
All severe weather threats will be possible, but the primary threat will be the large hail and damaging winds.
Any tornadoes that are able to form will do so either with storms that can remain isolated in the afternoon, or be embedded in a line of storms that occur later in the evening.
Storms will congeal into a line or clusters and steadily make their way eastward, with the areas behind them mainly, “in the clear,” per the NWS Hastings. “The vast majority of our coverage area will likely be storm-free around 9 p.m.”
“We see a distinct pattern shift behind the cold front and associated upper trough on Wednesday. High temperatures on Wednesday are expected to be in the upper 60s and low 70s,” NWS Hastings states.
